Comments for COE Packery Scoping Meeting
Richard L. Watson, Ph.D.

September 7, 2000

The predictions and analysis that I made in 1996 and 1997 about the problems with the plans to open Packery Channel are coming true one by one.

1. Correction of the math used in the Kraus study showed that the pass will not be stable and successful as the proponents claimed, but will tend to shoal and become unsafe for navigation with rapid growth of a shallow bar at the channel entrance.

2. The peer review panel found that the surf sand transport system will bring 412,000 cubic yards of channel choking sand to the pass. This is double the amount estimated in the proponents study. The PBS&J study of environmental effects raised this estimate to 500,000 cubic yards per year. This is two to three times the estimate of the Kraus study and near to the 750,000 cubic yards per year that we found to be the supply of sand to the nearby Fish Pass 25 years ago.

3. PBS&J estimates annual maintenance dredging by using the numbers from Mansfield Pass . They predict an annual dredging and jetty maintenance cost of $292,000 using a dredging cost of $1.50 per cubic yard. Shiner, Moseley and Associates in the January 2000, Galveston County Comprehensive Gulf Shoreline Erosion Response Plan indicate that present dredging costs are a minimum of $3 to $5 per cubic yard. This present day pricing shows that the annual dredging cost will be between $584,000 and $973,000 dollars per year. This is well within the range of $500,000 to $1,500,000 that I estimated long ago.

4. It gets worse! Due to the low and narrow bridge (see photo above), any dredge which is capable of initially digging the pass or maintaining it, must approach the pass from the Gulf side; it will be unable to get under the bridge. Pipeline dredges are NOT seaworthy vessels and the entire time the dredge is in the Gulf, it will be in danger of sinking. It will not be safe, until it has dredged its way into calm water. This likely means that dredging costs will be much higher than the annual estimate of $600,000 to $1,000,000 based on current costs. The dredging company will demand more money because of the greater risk of their dredge sinking, if strong winds occur before they can dredge their way into calm water. This risk will be present each time the pass is dredged, not just during initial construction. This is a negligible risk at most inlets, because the dredge can approach from the inland side and can always retreat to calm water. Even so a dredge sank in the mouth of Mansfield Pass a few years ago.

5. The PBS&J study found Packery Channel will produce no environmental benefits or salinity reduction in Laguna Madre, false conclusions still touted by Packery proponents.

6. The jetties are far too short and the pass is too shallow. The jetties are designed to be 1200 ft. to 1400 ft. long (about the length of Bob Hall Pier), with a design depth of about 11 ft. This will place the seaward end of the jetties well within breaking surf as many as 75 days per year. There will be breaking waves within the jetty channel. This will rapidly transport sand into the channel and will very rapidly build a shallow bar in the entrance. Even smaller waves will break on the shallow bar, rendering the entrance unsafe for navigation. The fish pass was built with jetties only 400 feet shorter than the Packery jetties and it filled from an 11 foot depth in the entrance to less than 4 feet in only 5 months!

There is no greater hazard to navigation than a breaking inlet. Inexperienced boaters will go out in the morning when it is calm and return in the afternoon when the wind has risen and find breaking waves in the entrance. An outgoing tidal flow will make the situation even worse. The jetty length needs to be increased at least another 1000 feet. This will raise the initial construction cost at least $10 million dollars! For safe navigation, the minimum dredge depth needs to be at least 16 to 18 feet and the seaward end of the jetties need to end in that depth of water.

7. The bridge is too low and too narrow. Corps of Engineers regulations require that they only build inlets to reduce flooding, improve environmental conditions or for commercial vessel navigation. It has been shown that Packery will not accomplish the first two and may, in fact, speed up flooding during the onset of hurricane surge tides. Packery will be totally unsuitable for commercial vessel navigation because of its shallow depth and the restriction of a narrow bridge with only 21 ft. of vertical clearance. Almost no commercial vessels can navigate it. In fact, no sail boats can pass under the bridge. It will be a pass only good for outboards and very small inboard motorboats. Most inboard offshore sportfishing boats cannot pass under the bridge.

8. There needs to be serious shoreline stabilization and bulkheading in front of the homes which are located at the bend just west of the bridge. Even though the flow through the pass will be too low to keep it kept free of sand, the initial flow after dredging will be substantial. There is a similar bend just west of the bridge at the Fish Pass. Even though the fish pass entrance filled to less than 4 feet in 5 months, the initial flow was high enough to cause rapid erosion at the bend. The state had to move rapidly to install bulkheading because a large natural gas pipeline was eroded and in danger of failing. This bulkheading is still visible in the sand filled Fish Pass just west of the bridge. This should be accomplished prior to opening the pass to protect the property of the homeowners along the pass. Their houses are located on the outside of a sharp bend and the channel is likely to rapidly erode in their direction.

9. Building Packery Channel with the longer jetties needed and realistic estimates of annual dredging maintenance are going to greatly increase both the initial construction costs and the annual maintenance far above the present estimates. In 1996, I stated that it would cost $50 million to build Packery when the proponents were saying it could be built for $11 million. They are now up to $30 million with the same short jetties. Expect a construction cost of $50 million or more for a navigationally safe pass, and a maintenance cost in excess of $1,000,000 every year. This will double the City's share of the cost, even before construction begins.

10. The tremendous financial benefits will probably only be realized by the developer of the land gulfward of the bridge. It is unlikely that North Padre will turn into Fort Lauderdale. South Padre island has fantastic development, but very little of that is due to the pass. They have only one big offshore fishing boat, even though they have a ship inlet. Port Aransas has one of the best inlets in the United States and plenty of available land, but it is no Fort Lauderdale.

How can you expect a shallow, dangerous, expensive inlet to work a financial miracle, when it has not happened at really good inlets on the same coast.